Castro Resigns … First Ever Dictator to Willingly Leave Office?

Posted on February 19th, 2008 by Carlos

I’m sure the Blogosphere is about to set itself on fire with discussions of what Castro’s resignation means. Some people will insist that he’s already dead and that this “beyond the grave” voice is an attempt to maintain the peace in a period of transition. I’m sure plenty of Cubans will be dancing in the streets at the news, while others will grumble that anyone who takes power after him will just be his marionette so long as he is alive.

Me? I am cautiously hopeful. That Castro is ceding power (after 49 years, mind you) may indicate that Cuba is really set to change in positive ways. Already American agribusiness sees in Cuba a ready trading partner. And with trade may come conciliation. And with conciliation comes the lifting of trade embargoes, the removal of travel restrictions. I would get to see my family.

Castro’s decades of human rights violations are well-documented, but at the same time that he did monstrous things to his own people, he also maintained Cuban autonomy against the constant pressure of the greatest economic power in the world. He refused to allow Cuba to become a vassal state to the United States — something that I think ultimately is a good thing (see Bastista years). I wonder if Cuba after Castro will be able to maintain its cultural independence. Maybe Cubans, starved for so long, will succumb to the influx of goods and money that a post-Castro Cuba could see. Maybe they will become even fiercer ideologues than before, turning Castro into an icon comparable to Che. Or, perhaps, as history progresses, each will happen, in turn.

I think, so long as Castro remains alive — or at least as long as the government successfully fools into thinking he’s alive, hee hee — we won’t see uprisings, revolutions, or even marked changes in Cuban policy. But his death, I fear, may turn out to be the strike of the match that lights the powder keg that is the Cuban/American relations. And I pray John McCain is not our president when that happens.